11/17/2012

Opinion: Hamas can't be ignored

Israeli soldiers gather next to their armored bulldozers stationed on Israel's border with the Gaza Strip on Saturday, November 17. Israeli air strikes destroyed the cabinet headquarters of Gaza's Hamas rulers after militants fired rockets at the heart of Israel, which called up thousands more reservists for a possible ground war.Israeli soldiers gather next to their armored bulldozers stationed on Israel's border with the Gaza Strip on Saturday, November 17. Israeli air strikes destroyed the cabinet headquarters of Gaza's Hamas rulers after militants fired rockets at the heart of Israel, which called up thousands more reservists for a possible ground war.
Israeli soldiers fire tear gas toward stone throwers demonstrating against the Israeli military offensive on the Gaza Strip in the village of Beit Omar, north of the West Bank town of Hebron, on Saturday. Egypt and Turkey put the onus on Israel to end the fighting around Gaza as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Cairo a day after Washington urged the two governments to pressure the Palestinians.Israeli soldiers fire tear gas toward stone throwers demonstrating against the Israeli military offensive on the Gaza Strip in the village of Beit Omar, north of the West Bank town of Hebron, on Saturday. Egypt and Turkey put the onus on Israel to end the fighting around Gaza as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Cairo a day after Washington urged th e two governments to pressure the Palestinians.
An injured student from the University of Birzeit is carried away Saturday during clashes with Israeli soldiers as hundreds of students took part in a demonstration against the ongoing Israeli military offensive on the Gaza Strip in the Israeli occupied West Bank town of Betunia. Israeli strikes on Gaza killed 10 Palestinians and destroyed the Hamas government headquarters.An injured student from the University of Birzeit is carried away Saturday during clashes with Israeli soldiers as hundreds of students took part in a demonstration against the ongoing Israeli military offensive on the Gaza Strip in the Israeli occupied West Bank town of Betunia. Israeli strikes on Gaza killed 10 Palestinians and destroyed the Hamas government headquarters.
A student from the University of Birzeit throws a molotov cocktail toward Israeli soldiers during clashes.A student from the University of Birzeit throws a molotov cocktail toward Israeli soldiers during clashes.
Palestinians gather at the site of an Israeli air raid in Gaza City on November 17, 2012. Israeli air strikes hit the cabinet headquarters of Gaza's Hamas government after militants fired rockets at Jerusalem and Tel Aviv as Israel called up thousands more reservists in readiness for a potential ground war.Palestinians gather at the site of an Israeli air raid in Gaza City on November 17, 2012. Israeli air strikes hit the cabinet headquarters of Gaza's Hamas government after militants fired rockets at Jerusalem and Tel Aviv as Israel called up thousands more reservists in readiness for a potential ground war.
Palestinian paramedics carry an injured woman on a stretcher Saturday following an Israeli air raid on a house in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip.Palestinian paramedics carry an injured woman on a stretcher Saturday following an Israeli air raid on a house in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip.
Smoke billows across the southern Israeli border with the Gaza Strip on Saturday following Israeli air strikes inside the Palestinian territory.Smoke billows across the southern Israeli border with the Gaza Strip on Saturday following Israeli air strikes inside the Palestinian territory.
A Palestinian Hamas policeman looks at an Israeli rocket in the street in Gaza City on Saturday.A Palestinian Hamas policeman looks at an Israeli rocket in the street in Gaza City on Saturday.
An Israeli man walks to his house damaged by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip in the moshav of Sde Uziyahu near the southern Israeli city of Ashdod. The Israeli military said it had sealed off all main roads around Gaza and declared a closed military zone, in the latest sign it was poised to launch a first ground offensive on the Palestinian enclave since December 2008-January 2009.An Israeli man walks to his house damaged by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip in the moshav of Sde Uziyahu near the southern Israeli city of Ashdod. The Israeli military said it had sealed off all main roads around Gaza and declared a closed military zone, in the latest sign it was poised to launch a first ground offensive on the Palestinian enc lave since December 2008-January 2009.
Pro-Palestinian demonstrators protest near the Israeli Embassy in Madrid on Friday against Israel's aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip.Pro-Palestinian demonstrators protest near the Israeli Embassy in Madrid on Friday against Israel's aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip.
Israeli children wave their national flag Saturday as they greet a bus carrying soldiers on a road leading to the Israel-Gaza border near the southern Israeli town of Ofakim.Israeli children wave their national flag Saturday as they greet a bus carrying soldiers on a road leading to the Israel-Gaza border near the southern Israeli town of Ofakim.
Israeli tanks maneuver at the Israeli-Gaza Strip border.Israeli tanks maneuver at the Israeli-Gaza Strip border.
Relatives take cover from a rocket attack during the funeral for Itzik Amsalem in Kiryat Malachi, Israel, on Friday, November 16. At least three people were killed in the Israeli town when a rocket fired from Gaza struck an apartment building there on Thursday. Fighting between Israel and Hamas militants persisted Friday with no immediate end in sight.Relatives take cover from a rocket attack during the funeral for Itzik Amsalem in Kiryat Malachi, Israel, on Friday, November 16. At least three people were killed in the Israeli town when a rocket fired from Gaza struck an apartment building there on Thursday. Fighting between Israel and Hamas militants persisted Friday with no immediate end in sight.
A rocket fired from Gaza toward Israel sails into the air Friday.A rocket fired from Gaza toward Israel sails into the air Friday.
Explosions erupt from spots targeted by Israeli airstrikes inside Gaza on Friday.Explosions erupt from spots targeted by Israeli airstrikes inside Gaza on Friday.
Israeli soldiers stand guard while explosives experts examine the site where a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip landed near the Jewish settlement of Gush Etzion in the village of Kisan, south of Bethlehem on Friday.Israeli soldiers stand guard while explosives experts examine the site where a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip landed near the Jewish settlement of Gush Etzion in the village of Kisan, south of Bethlehem on Friday.
A relative grieves during the funeral for Itzik Amsalem in Kiryat Malakhi, Israel, on Friday.A relative grieves during the funeral for Itzik Amsalem in Kiryat Malakhi, Israel, on Friday.
Palestinian protesters hold up the Hamas flag during a rally Friday in the West Bank city of Ramallah.Palestinian protesters hold up the Hamas flag during a rally Friday in the West Bank city of Ramallah.
People take cover during a rocket attack at a funeral Friday in Kiryat Malakhi, Israel.People take cover during a rocket attack at a funeral Friday in Kiryat Malakhi, Israel.
Palestinian youths throw stones at Israeli security forces Friday in a West Bank village near Bethlehem.Palestinian youths throw stones at Israeli security forces Friday in a West Bank village near Bethlehem.
An Israeli soldier aims at Palestinian youth at a West Bank checkpoint Friday during a protest against the fighting in Gaza.An Israeli soldier aims at Palestinian youth at a West Bank checkpoint Friday during a protest against the fighting in Gaza.
Palestinian Fares Sadallah, 11, cries outside his home after an Israeli airstrike Friday in northern Gaza.Palestinian Fares Sadallah, 11, cries outside his home after an Israeli airstrike Friday in northern Gaza.
Palestinian firefighters try to extinguish a blaze Friday at the Ministry of Interior in Gaza City following an Israeli air raid.Palestinian firefighters try to extinguish a blaze Friday at the Ministry of Interior in Gaza City following an Israeli air raid.
Relatives of Itzik Amsalam, who was killed Thursday in Kiryat Malakhi, Israel, mourn during Friday's funeral. Relatives of Itzik Amsalam, who was killed Thursday in Kiryat Malakhi, Israel, mourn during Friday's funeral.
A woman cries during the funeral of Itzik Amsalam on Friday.A woman cries during the funeral of Itzik Amsalam on Friday.
An Israeli soldier fires a tear gas canister toward Palestinian stone throwers on a road mainly used by Israeli settlers in the West Bank village of Beit Omar on Friday.An Israeli soldier fires a tear gas canister toward Palestinian stone throwers on a road mainly used by Israeli settlers in the West Bank village of Beit Omar on Friday.
Palestinians run for cover after an Israeli airstrike hits Gaza City on Friday.Palestinians run for cover after an Israeli airstrike hits Gaza City on Friday.
Palestinian youths inspect a destroyed mosque in northern Gaza on Friday.Palestinian youths inspect a destroyed mosque in northern Gaza on Friday.
Israeli soldiers conduct a patrol as some 16,000 reserve troops are drafted in on Friday.Israeli soldiers conduct a patrol as some 16,000 reserve troops are drafted in on Friday.
Palestinian mourners carry the body of Audi Naser during his funeral in Gaza on Friday.Palestinian mourners carry the body of Audi Naser during his funeral in Gaza on Friday.
Palestinian women and children cry during the funeral of Audi Naser on Friday.Palestinian women and children cry during the funeral of Audi Naser on Friday.
Palestinian firefighters try to extinguish a fire at the Civilian Affairs branch of the Ministry of Interior on Friday. Palestinian firefighters try to extinguish a fire at the Civilian Affairs branch of the Ministry of Interior on Friday.
Smokes billows from a target of an Israeli airstrike Friday in Gaza near the border with Israel. Smokes billows from a target of an Israeli airstrike Friday in Gaza near the border with Israel.
An Israeli woman looks out from an apartment building in Ashdod, Israel, damaged by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants on Friday.An Israeli woman looks out from an apartment building in Ashdod, Israel, damaged by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants on Friday.
Palestinians extinguish a fire after Israeli airstrikes targeted the Interior Ministry building in Gaza City Friday.Palestinians extinguish a fire after Israeli airstrikes targeted the Interior Ministry building in Gaza City Friday.
Israelis take cover in a pipe used as a bomb shelter, after a rocket was launched from the Gaza Strip on Thursday, November 15 in Kiryat Malachi, Israel. Rockets and shells crisscrossed between Israel and Gaza on Thursday as Palestinian militants continued rocket attacks on Israeli civilians and Israel pounded what it called terror sites. Israelis take cover in a pipe used as a bomb shelter, after a rocket was launched from the Gaza Strip on Thursday, November 15 in Kiryat Malachi, Israel. Rockets and shells crisscrossed between Israel and Gaza on Thursday as Palestinian militants continued rocket attacks on Israeli civilians and Israel pounded what it called terror sites.
An Israeli man looks out from an apartment building that was hit by a rocket launched presumably from the Gaza Strip, claiming three lives on Thursday in Kiryat Malachi, Israel. An Israeli man looks out from an apartment building that was hit by a rocket launched presumably from the Gaza Strip, claiming three lives on Thursday in Kiryat Malachi, Israel.
Palestinians extinguish a fire after Israeli air strikes targeted an electricity generator that fed the house of Hamas's Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza City, on Thursday.Palestinians extinguish a fire after Israeli air strikes targeted an electricity generator that fed the house of Hamas's Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza City, on Thursday.
A crater is left at a spot targeted by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City early Thursday.A crater is left at a spot targeted by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City early Thursday.
Israeli soldiers rest by their armored personnel carriers stationed on the Israel-Gaza border on Thursday. Israeli soldiers rest by their armored personnel carriers stationed on the Israel-Gaza border on Thursday.
Rescue workers evacuate a body Thursday in the Israeli town of Kiryat Malakhi after a rocket launched from Gaza hit an apartment building. Rescue workers evacuate a body Thursday in the Israeli town of Kiryat Malakhi after a rocket launched from Gaza hit an apartment building.
Palestinian relatives mourn over the body of Hanen Tafish, a 10-month-old girl, at the morgue of the al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City on Thursday after she died following an Israeli air strike in the Zeitun neighbourhood.Palestinian relatives mourn over the body of Hanen Tafish, a 10-month-old girl, at the morgue of the al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City on Thursday after she died following an Israeli air strike in the Zeitun neighbourhood.
Palestinians watch a funeral Thursday in southern Gaza. Palestinians watch a funeral Thursday in southern Gaza.
A Palestinian pleads for help as he and others try to save a man trapped under his car after an Israeli air raid Thursday in northern Gaza. A Palestinian pleads for help as he and others try to save a man trapped under his car after an Israeli air raid Thursday in northern Gaza.
Israeli police inspect an apartment building hit by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants in Kiryat Malakhi on Thursday. At least three Israelis were killed and four were wounded, an Israeli police spokesman said.Israeli police inspect an apartment building hit by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants in Kiryat Malakhi on Thursday. At least three Israelis were killed and four were wounded, an Israeli police spokesman said.
The Israeli military launches a missile Thursday from the southern city of Beersheba.The Israeli military launches a missile Thursday from the southern city of Beersheba.
A picture taken from the southern Israeli town of Sderot shows smoke billowing from a spot targeted by an Israeli airstrike inside Gaza on Thursday. A picture taken from the southern Israeli town of Sderot shows smoke billowing from a spot targeted by an Israeli airstrike inside Gaza on Thursday.
A Palestinian man inspects his damaged house following an Israeli airstrike early Thursday in Gaza City.A Palestinian man inspects his damaged house following an Israeli airstrike early Thursday in Gaza City.
An Israeli reacts after a rocket launched from Gaza hits a building Thursday in Kiryat Malakhi.An Israeli reacts after a rocket launched from Gaza hits a building Thursday in Kiryat Malakhi.
Palestinian firefighters extinguish the blaze from the car of Ahmed al-Jaabari, head of Hamas' military wing, after an Israeli airstrike hit it in Gaza City on Wednesday, November 14. The Israeli strike killed al-Jaabari.Palestinian firefighters extinguish the blaze from the car of Ahmed al-Jaabari, head of Hamas' military wing, after an Israeli airstrike hit it in Gaza City on Wednesday, November 14. The Israeli strike killed al-Jaabari.
A woman sits inside a bomb shelter Wednesday in Netivot, Israel.A woman sits inside a bomb shelter Wednesday in Netivot, Israel.
Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike Wednesday in Khan Younis, Gaza.Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike Wednesday in Khan Younis, Gaza.
Palestinian firefighters extinguish fire from the car in which al-Jaabari was apparently riding.Palestinian firefighters extinguish fire from the car in which al-Jaabari was apparently riding.
A Palestinian man cries as security forces wheel al-Jaabari's body into a hospital.A Palestinian man cries as security forces wheel al-Jaabari's body into a hospital.
Palestinian youths look inside a building where al-Jaabari's body was brought after the attack.Palestinian youths look inside a building where al-Jaabari's body was brought after the attack.
A wounded Palestinian girl cries at the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.A wounded Palestinian girl cries at the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
Palestinian youths evacuate an elderly man following an Israeli airstrike.Palestinian youths evacuate an elderly man following an Israeli airstrike.
Palestinian civilians leave their houses following an Israeli airstrike.Palestinian civilians leave their houses following an Israeli airstrike.
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  • Nathan Brown: In Gaza violence, neither side has much to gain. So why can't they stop?
  • He says both sides want to show strength, deny the other a win to help their domestic politics
  • He says Hamas wants to send message it can't be ignored; still fighting will likely abate
  • Brown: U.S. "peace process" has wished away Hamas but must deal with reality of what is

Editor's note: Nathan J. Brown is professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is author of six books on Middle East politics, the most recent of which is "When Victory is Not an Option: Islamist Movements in Arab Politics" (Cornell University Press, 2012).

(CNN) -- The outbreak of violence between Israel and the Hamas-controlled "statelet" of Gaza serves no end. Both sides know that, yet they plunge ahead anyway, claiming that they are forced by their adversary to escalate the conflict.

Most experts agree that eventually the fighting will stop and leave the situation unchanged. The only question is the number of victims. If neither side has much to gain, why can't they stop themselves?

Each side suspects the other of playing domestic politics. Palestinians fear that the Israeli government is making war with an eye to upcoming elections. Israelis suspect that Hamas -- whose full name is the "Islamic Resistance Movement" -- is lobbing rockets because it is tired of its rivals' taunting that it is not living up to its middle name.

Nathan J. Brown

There is some truth to these charges, but the deeper motivations have to do less with pleasing the home crowd and more with frightening and deterring the other side.

Both sides would love to have their adversary disappear but know they cannot make that happen any time soon, so for now they each have more limited goals.

The Israelis know that they cannot dislodge Hamas from Gaza without unacceptable cost and endless occupation. But they want to punish the movement so severely that it will be deterred from future violence. Hamas knows that the damage it inflicts serves no strategic value, but it hopes that its rockets will cause dislocation and even panic in Israel and send an international message that Gaza cannot be ignored.

News: Israel: 'Iron Dome' blocks rocket fired toward Tel Aviv

So the fighting likely will be contained in the end. In addition to civilian casualties on both sides (with the toll much heavier in Gaza, since Israel is the much stronger party), there will be substantial political damage, as well. The United States will be regarded in the Arab world as complicit in the Israeli offensive. And Egypt, which has a peace treaty with Israel but whose population sympathizes with Hamas, will feel badly embarrassed by its apparent powerlessness.

Massive explosion in Gaza City
Is Iran the real target?
Egypt's role in Gaza-Israel conflict
Barrage of bombs, rockets

But the real blame on international actors -- including the United States and Egypt -- falls not on their actions during this crisis, but on their long inaction before.

The United States under both President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama supported a harsh blockade on Gaza and pretended that the Israeli-Palestinian issue could be dealt with as if Hamas does not exist and Gaza does not matter. Under ousted leader Hosni Mubarak, Egypt quietly supported that position. Under Muhammad Morsy, Egypt's new president from the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt is no longer quiet or supportive, but it has only been able to wield rhetorical tools.

Opinion: New dangers in familiar Gaza violence

Egypt (which now tilts toward Hamas) and the United States (which supports Israel) can, if they cooperate, probably bring about a ceasefire. What they do afterward is the real question.

There is no clear path forward for international diplomacy, but it is quite obvious what does not work: Waiting for Hamas to go away. In a visit to Gaza last May, I saw how thoroughly Hamas has come to dominate politics and society in the tiny but crowded enclave. The movement runs ministries, polices the streets and manages the economy. Gaza residents see no alternative to Hamas, nor are they asked for one, with elections canceled and opposition closely monitored.

As the Obama administration moves into its second term, it makes more sense to deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that really exists rather than to pretend that there still is a "peace process" that only needs one more round of quiet talks to succeed.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Nathan Brown.

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