11/30/2012

What's driving Egypt's unrest?

  • Thousands of Egyptians have taken to the streets to protest a presidential edict
  • The decree gave the president unchecked power until a new constitution was drafted
  • President Morsy has been locked in a power struggle with factions of the old regime
  • The hurried completion of a draft for a new constitution may provide a solution

(CNN) -- In scenes reminiscent of the mass demonstrations that brought about the downfall of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, thousands of protestors have turned out in Cairo's Tahrir Square over the past week.

What is the behind the latest unrest?

The protests have been sparked by a November 22 presidential decree issued by President Mohamed Morsy -- the first freely elected leader of this country of 83 million, the most populous Arab nation -- which prevented any court from overturning his decisions until a new, post-Mubarak constitution was ready. The ruling has essentially given him unchecked power.

What was Morsy's rationale?

Insisting the order is temporary - it will last only until a new constitution was drafted - Morsy claimed the move was intended to safeguard the revolution. He also gave an assurance his decree would only apply to "sovereign" matters.

In particular, Morsy said, the edict was aimed at preventing interference from the courts in the work of Egypt's constituent assembly, currently drafting a new constitution. The judges, many of whom were appointed during the reign of his predecessor Mubarak, are widely viewed as hostile to the Islamists who now dominate the assembly that has been charged with framing a new constitution.

The move, which has concentrated power in the hands of the executive, is a continuation of the power struggles between Morsy's Muslim Brotherhood - the Islamist movement which is Egypt's most powerful political force and won nearly half the seats in parliamentary elections -- and the remnants of the military-dominated establishment of the Mubarak years.

In June, just weeks before Morsy's election, Egypt's military leaders declared parliament invalid and dissolved the body, a ruling which was upheld by Egypt's highest court in September. After his election, Morsy defied the military leader by calling parliament into session. Morsy's edict ruled out the possibility of repeat interference.

In August, the president moved against the military leadership, sending into retirement Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi - who, as Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, had acted the country's de facto ruler in the wake of Mubarak's ouster and prior to Morsy's election.

What has been the response?

Morsy's decree has sharply divided Egyptians. While the Muslim Brotherhood is standing by their man, calling a rally to show support, many other Egyptians have seen the order as an alarming power grab - and a lurch back towards an authoritarian style of leadership the country has only recently overthrown.

Left-leaning and liberal Egyptians -- who had played a large part in the revolution but were sidelined by the success of Islamists in subsequent elections -- made up a large component of the protestors in Tahrir Square. Many of their chants have accused Morsy, the first democratically elected president, of becoming a "new pharaoh" and a "dictator."

Many of the original grievances behind the revolution were derived from questions around extreme inequality and corruption. Those issues have not been addressed.
Laleh Khalili, School of Oriental and African Studies

"In some ways, the liberal and left-wing forces are trying to stake a claim to the revolution again through the protests," Laleh Khalili, a reader in politics at the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies, told CNN.

The demonstrators, who have been calling on Morsy to rescind the edict or resign, also included those sympathetic to the military and the old regime, she said.

How did it come about?

Morsy issued his edict the day after the November 21 cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which he had played a central role in brokering. Khalili said that, buoyed with newfound political capital from his successful foray on the international stage, the Egyptian president may have miscalculated, underestimating the level of outrage his actions would provoke.

The anger on the streets, she said, also reflected a level of public dissatisfaction with progress made since the revolution in addressing issues of poverty and inequality in a country with an unemployment rate of more than 12%, a median age of about 24 years and a per capita GDP of $6500.

"Many of the original grievances behind the revolution were derived from questions around extreme inequality and corruption," she said. "Those issues have not been addressed."

The protests represented "a perfect storm of many grievances coming to the fore," she said, and it was not clear how it would play out. "It's a fundamental challenge to the legitimacy of the regime."

What else was in the declaration?

Other aspects of Morsy's edict are likely to prove popular with many of those who have taken to the streets against him. In his decree, Morsy also announced that all deaths and violence connected to the uprising against Mubarak would be reinvestigated, with those responsible retried if necessary.

This raised the possibility that Mubarak, currently serving a life prison term, could be reprosecuted, along with a number of regime figures who were previously acquitted.

Some Egyptians have expressed disappointment that security forces and officials have escaped punishment over last year's violent crackdown on protestors.

This could be a way for him to get out of this debacle without reversing his decree
Aly Hassan, judicial analyst

Morsy also sacked the prosecutor-general in his declaration, and extended the timeline for drafting the constitution by two months.

But while those resolutions may be welcomed by many, the unilateral manner in which Morsy has gone about expanding his powers has alarmed many.

"It's the way he's doing it that has gotten people upset, because it reminds them of the way Mubarak used to govern," Peter Jones, a Middle East expert at the University of Ottawa, told CNN.

According to reports, one popular slogan during the current protests has been "Morsy is Mubarak."

If Morsy's new powers are only temporary, why the outrage?

Firstly, there is no guarantee that Morsy will relinquish power as promised.

Secondly, even if Morsy rescinds the decree after the constitution is finalized, protesters fear that he will have used the edict to hijack the process of drafting the new constitution, producing a document that reflects his Islamist vision and consolidates his power in the new Egypt.

Liberal, left-wing and Christian members of assembly have boycotted the body over concerns that Islamists are dominating the process.

"By the time you get that new constitution, it will have been written by an Islamist-dominated assembly that all non-Islamists have completely abandoned, and the new parliamentary elections will likely exclude members of the former ruling party who posed the greatest threat to his authority," Eric Trager, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told CNN.

What is happening with the constitution now?

Despite the extended deadline to complete the framing of the constitution, the assembly charged with crafting the document rushed to produce a finalized draft on Friday, after a marathon 21-hour negotiation session through the night.

The 234-article draft will go before the public for a vote within 15 days; if it passes the referendum, Morsy says the decrees would be lifted.

Some critics have seen the move as a successful attempt by Islamists to "hijack" the constitution. Others see the hurried drafting of the document as a strategy to defuse the crisis: The passing of a new constitution could bring an end to Morsy's new provisions without requiring him to back down.

"This could be a way for him to get out of this debacle without reversing his decree and decisions," Aly Hassan, a judicial analyst affiliated with the Ministry of Justice, told CNN.

What does the drafted constitution say?

The draft constitution maintains the principles of sharia as the main source of legislation - a position unchanged from the constitution under Mubarak.

But critics fear it could lead to excessive restrictions on certain rights.

"There aren't really any protections for women," Heba Morayef, the Egypt director for Human Rights Watch, told CNN.

Mustapha Kamel Sayed, a Cairo University professor, told CNN the old constitution was better, "as far as rights are concerned."

But others have welcomed the completion of the draft, as a way out of the current impasse.

"The draft constitution will end the state of political division, because it will cancel the constitutional decrees that the president issued," Dawood Basil, a Cairo University constitutional law expert told CNN.

"I feel overwhelming joy after hearing the final wording of the articles."

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