 U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign rally at Austin Straubel International Airport in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Thursday, November 1.  U.S. Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney greets policemen who were part of his motorcade as he prepares to board his campaign plane in Roanoke, Virginia on Thursday.  Supporters wait to hear President Obama during a campaign rally at Austin Straubel International Airport on Thursday.  Mitt Romney holds a baby during a campaign event at Meadow Event Park on Thursday.  President Obama speaks during a campaign rally at Austin Straubel International Airport.  A Mitt Romney supporter holds an American flag during a campaign event at Meadow Event Park.  President Barack Obama greets and comforts victims of Hurricane Sandy at a shelter in Brigantine, New Jersey, on Wednesday, October 31.  Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney holds a campaign rally on Halloween at Metropolitan Park in Jacksonville, Florida, on Wednesday, October 31.  President Barack Obama speaks about the federal government's response to Superstorm Sandy at the headquarters of the Red Cross in Washington on Tuesday, October 30.  Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney accepts a food donation for storm victims at an event in Kettering, Ohio, on Tuesday.  Supporters listen as Romney speaks at an event to collect food and supply donations for storm victims in Kettering, Ohio, Tuesday.  Romney talks with advisers on his campaign bus while en route to a rally at Avon Lake High School on Monday, October 29, in Avon Lake, Ohio.  Obama makes a statement in the White House briefing room following a briefing on Hurricane Sandy on Monday in Washington. Obama returned early from a campaign trip to Florida and has canceled several other campaign events to monitor the storm.  Former President Bill Clinton speaks during a campaign rally with Vice President Joe Biden on Monday in Youngstown, Ohio. Obama had planned to attend the event but canceled to monitor Hurricane Sandy.  Obama steps off Air Force One on Monday upon arrival at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland.  People line up in the rain for a campaign rally with Clinton and Biden on Monday in Youngstown, Ohio.  Democratic supporters listen during a campaign rally Monday with Clinton and Biden.  Romney greets supporters during a campaign rally at Avon Lake High School on Monday in Avon Lake, Ohio. Romney canceled other campaign events planned for Monday and Tuesday due to Hurricane Sandy.  A young girl looks on during a campaign rally for Romney at Avon Lake High School on Monday.  Romney speaks during a campaign rally at Seven Cities Sod on Monday in Davenport, Iowa.  Romney gets into his SUV after landing Monday in Vandalia, Ohio.  Romney holds a giant cinnamon roll on Monday en route to Dayton, Ohio.  A supporter of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan wears a campaign sticker on his shoe during a campaign rally at the Celina Fieldhouse in Celina, Ohio, on Sunday, October 28.  Obama delivers remarks during a campaign rally at Elm Street Middle School in Nashua, New Hampshire on Saturday, October 27. With 10 days to go before the presidential election, Obama and his opponent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, are criss-crossing the country from one swing state to the next in an attempt to sway voters.  A young Romney supporter holds a homemade sign during a campaign rally at Ranger Jet Center on Saturday in Kissimmee, Florida.  Obama speaks at a campaign rally in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Saturday.  Romney emerges from his SUV at Akron-Canton Regional Airport on Saturday in Canton, Ohio.  Romney and his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, hold a campaign rally at Canton Hoover High School in North Canton, Ohio, on Friday, October 26.  Obama chats with firefighters after dropping off doughnuts for them at a fire station in Tampa, Florida, on Thursday, October 25.  Romney, center, poses for a photo with workers at First Watch Cafe on Thursday.  Volunteers make phone calls seeking support for Romney at his Arlington Victory Center in Virginia.  Obama kisses a baby during a campaign rally at Byrd Park in Richmond, Virginia, on Thursday.  Supporters take photos of Obama during a campaign rally at Ybor City Museum State Park in Tampa on Thursday.  Supporters look on as Romney speaks during a campaign rally at Jet Machine in Cincinnati.  Romney says goodbye to Ryan at Denver International airport on Wednesday, October 24.  Supporters cheer as Obama speaks during a campaign event at Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds in Davenport, Iowa, Wednesday.  The president speaks with residents during a lunch with a group of Obama for America volunteers at an unanounced stop at Antonella's Pizzeria in Davenport, Iowa, on Wednesday.  Romney holds a campaign rally at the Reno Event Center in Nevada on Wednesday.  Obama greets people at Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado, Wednesday.  Romney gestures to the crowd during a campaign event at the Reno Event Center in Reno, Nevada on Wednesday.  Romney talks with his running mate Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin aboard their campaign plane on Tuesday, October 23, en route to Denver. A day after the final presidential debate, Romney is campaigning in Nevada and Colorado.   Obama and Romney hug their wives on stage after finishing their third and final presidential debate at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, on Monday, October 22.  Romney and his wife, Ann, try to relax backstage with members of their family before the start of Monday's debate.  Obama reads briefing material while meeting with advisers inside his cabin on Sunday, October 21, at Camp David, Maryland.  Republican candidate Mitt Romney plays with his grandson while having dinner on Sunday in Delray Beach, Florida.  Bartek Wawruch stands between cardboard cutouts of Obama and Romney at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, on Saturday, October 20, as the campus prepares for Monday's presidential debate.  Romney boards his campaign plane at Newark Liberty International Airport on Friday, October 19.   Romney speaks with campaign staff on board his campaign plane at Washington Dulles International Airport in Chantilly, Virginia, on Thursday, October 18.  Obama speaks during a rally at Veterans Memorial Park in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Thursday.  Jack Bunn, 51, and Jane Cookson, 57, cast their votes at the Board of Elections early voting station in Wilson, North Carolina, on Thursday.  Barack Obama and Jon Stewart speak during a break in the live taping of Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" on Thursday.  Supporters of Mitt Romney attend a campaign rally in Chesapeake, Virginia, on Wednesday, October 17.  Mitt Romney is seen backstage through a campaign flag as he waits to take the stage at a rally in Chesapeake, Virginia, on Wednesday.  Supporters of Obama listen to him speak during a rally at Cornell College in Mt. Vernon, Iowa, on Wednesday.  President Barack Obama arrives at Rickenbacker International Airport in Columbus, Ohio, for a campaign rally Wednesday.  A group of men watch the presidential debate on television screens at an electronics store in Miami on Tuesday, October 16.  Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney talks with aides aboard his campaign plane en route to Ronkonkoma, New York, on Tuesday.  A worker cleans a sign for the Commission on Presidential Debates before the second presidential debate in Hempstead, New York, on Tuesday.  Members of the production crew ready final preparations for the second presidential debate between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney on Tuesday.  First lady Michelle Obama greets supporters during a campaign rally at Ohio Wesleyan University in Delaware, Ohio, on Monday, October 15.  Supporters of President Barack Obama cheer during the campaign rally at Ohio Wesleyan on Monday.  Obama jokes about a telephone with campaign volunteers Alexa Kissinger, left, and Suzanne Stern as he makes calls from a campaign office in Williamsburg, Virginia, on Sunday, October 14.  Dolls depicting Obama and Mitt Romney are on display at a gift shop at Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport in Maryland on Sunday.  Romney holds up a baby as he works the rope line after delivering remarks at a rally in Lebanon, Ohio, on Saturday, October 13.  A supporter holds an American flag in front of the Ohio logo on his shirt as he stands with a crowd at Shawnee State University to hear Romney speak on Saturday.  Mario Orosa, left, and Ron Cathey, right, chat with Obama during dinner at Smith Commons restaurant in Washington on Friday, October 12. Obama had dinner with contest winners who contributed to his re-election campaign.  Romney, right, and GOP vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan greet supporters as they arrive at a rally in Lancaster, Ohio, on Friday.  Students walk past a political mural near Centre College in downtown Danville, Kentucky, where Vice President Joe Biden and Republican vice-presidential nominee Rep. Paul Ryan faced off Thursday, October 11.  Ryan greets his son Sam after the debate in Danville, Kentucky, on Thursday.  Romney, left, speaks with the Rev. Billy Graham during a visit to the Graham cabin in Montreat, North Carolina, on Thursday.  Obama greets supporters at a campaign rally at the University of Miami on Thursday.  Romney and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie talk with supporters at Buns Bakery and Restaurant in Delaware, Ohio, on Wednesday, October 10. Romney is campaigning in Ohio with less than a month to go before the general election.  Christie, left, and Romney walk up to the stage at Ariel Corporation in Mount Vernon, Ohio, on Wednesday.  Centre College students Ben Boone, left, a stand-in for U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, and Tommy Munoz, a stand-in for Republican Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan, wave during a rehearsal for the vice presidential debate in Danville, Kentucky, on Wednesday.  Members of the media watch as President Barack Obama arrives aboard Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on Tuesday, October 9, in Washington. The president was returning from a two-day campaign trip to California and Ohio.  Obama addresses supporters during a campaign event at The Ohio State University on Tuesday.  Two Obama supporters, one holding a Big Bird book and the other clutching a picture of the president, listen while he speaks at a rally at Ohio State on Tuesday.  Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney departs a Wendy's restaurant with his dinner order in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, on Tuesday.  Supporters cheer as Romney delivers remarks on the James Koch Farm in Van Meter, Iowa, on Tuesday.  Allan Banojakedjian, left, and Jesus Romero fill out their voter registration forms at the Miami-Dade Elections Department on the final day of registration for the upcoming presidential election.  Rain doesn't keep Romney from campaigning in Newport News, Virginia, on Monday, October 8.  Obama holds a campaign event Monday at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium in San Francisco.  Obama takes the stage at a campaign concert at the Nokia Theatre in Los Angeles on Sunday, October 7. The president has been on a three-day trip to California and Ohio.  Air Force One leaves a shadow as it passes over the Forum on approach to Los Angeles International Airport on Sunday.  Obama leaves the White House on Sunday to board Air Force One.  Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his wife, Ann, greet workers at the Tin Fish restaurant following a rally Sunday in Port St. Lucie, Florida.  Romney casts a shadow on a banner as he speaks during a campaign event in Apopka, Florida, on Saturday, October 6.  A supporter holds a photograph of Romney in Apopka on Saturday.  Jon Bon Jovi performs at an Obama for America event at the House of Blues in Las Vegas on Saturday. It was the last day people in Nevada could register to vote in the upcoming presidential election.  Romney speaks during a campaign event in St. Petersburg, Florida, on Friday, October 5.  Romney supporters listen during Friday's campaign event in St. Petersburg.  Obama smiles as he speaks during a campaign rally in Fairfax, Virginia on Friday.  Obama is assisted with putting on a raincoat onstage during a campaign rally at Cleveland State University on Friday.  Romney speaks in Fishersville, Virginia, as Secret Service members keep guard on Thursday, October 4. A day after the first presidential debate in Denver, Romney headed to Virginia to continue campaigning.  Romney supporters bow their heads in prayer during Thursday's event at the Augusta Expoland in Fishersville, Viriginia.  Obama addresses the crowd at the University of Wisconsin in Madison on Thursday.  Romney greets police officers before boarding his campaign plane in Denver on Thursday.  Obama speaks at a campaign rally in Denver on Thursday. He accused his Republican challenger of dishonesty over tax policy and other issues brought up in Wednesday night's presidential debate.  Audience members cheer as Obama makes his way onto the stage at Sloan's Lake Park in Denver on Thursday.  Reporters watch the final minutes of the debate between Romney and Obama in Denver on Wednesday, October 3. The first of four debates for the 2012 election -- three presidential and one vice-presidential -- was moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS.  A member of the U.S. Secret Service keeps watch from the top of a building as Obama takes part in a debate walk-through at the University of Denver on Wednesday.  A seat is assigned to first lady Michelle Obama prior to Wednesday's debate.  Obama stands at the podium as he speaks during the debate on Wednesday.  Michelle and Barack Obama, left, join Mitt Romney and his family at the conclusion of the first presidential debate.  University of Denver student Sam Garry sits at the moderator's desk before a presidential debate dress rehearsal at the University of Denver on Tuesday, October 2.  Volunteers sit in for on-air television reporters on Tuesday in preparation for the first presidential debate in the Ritchie Center at the University of Denver.  Romney greets a father and his daughter after having lunch Tuesday at a restaurant in Denver.  Obama stares at the Hoover Dam in Nevada during a visit Tuesday.  Romney boards his campaign plane in Bedford, Massachusetts, on Monday, October 1. The Republican candidate was heading to Denver for the first presidential debate on Wednesday.  Obama hugs Chasstiry Vazquez after she indroduced him at a campaign event at Desert Pines High School in Las Vegas on Sunday, September 30.  Obama supporters cheer during Sunday's event in Las Vegas.  Romney leaves his campaign headquarters in Boston on Sunday.  A boy reaches out to shake hands with Obama on Sunday in Las Vegas. The president was in Nevada ahead of Wednesday's presidential debate in Denver.  Romney arrives at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Belmont to attend Sunday services.  Obama talks on the phone with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel in the Oval Office on Friday, September 28.  Romney speaks during a rally at Valley Forge Military Academy and College in Pennsylvania on Friday.  Romney talks to journalists aboard his campaign plane about his phone call with Netanyahu on Friday.  Cadets listen to Romney speak at a campaign rally Friday at the Valley Forge Military Academy and College in Wayne, Pennsylvania.  Romney addresses Friday's rally at the Valley Forge Military Academy and College.  Vice President Joe Biden hugs U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, as he arrives for a campaign event Friday in Boca Raton, Florida.  Romney speaks at a Veterans for Romney campaign event in Springfield, Virginia, on Thursday, September 27.  Obama supporters cheer at a campaign rally Thursday in Virginia Beach, Virginia.  Veterans at the American Legion Post 176 pray before Romney speaks Thursday in Springfield.  People listen to Obama speak at the Farm Bureau Live arena in Virginia Beach on Thursday.  Obama delivers remarks Thursday in Virginia Beach.  Supporters cheer as Romney speaks at SeaGate Convention Centre in Toledo, Ohio, on Wednesday, September 26.  Romney speaks during a roundtable discussion on manufacturing at American Spring Wire in Bedford Heights, Ohio, on Wednesday.  Supporters wait to see Obama on Wednesday at Toledo Express Airport in Bowling Green, Ohio. Air For One aborted an initial landing attempt in Ohio due to weather conditions.  Obama addresses supporters at Bowling Green State University on Wednesday.  Romney delivers remarks during a campaign rally Wednesday at Westerville South High School in Westerville, Ohio.  Former President Bill Clinton introduces Obama during the Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting in New York on Tuesday, September 25.  Supporters cheer during a Republican campaign rally Tuesday with Romney and his running mate, Paul Ryan, at Dayton International Airport in Vandalia, Ohio.  Ryan speaks Tuesday in Vandalia as Sen. Rand Paul, from left, Sen. Rob Portman and Romney listen.  Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush hugs a waitress as they wait for Ryan's arrival during a campaign stop at a restaurant in Miami's Little Havana neighborhood on Saturday, September 22.  Supporters cheer as they listen to Romney speak during a Juntos Con Romney Rally at the Darwin Fuchs Pavilion on Wednesday, September 19, in Miami.  Romney shakes hands with supporters during the Juntos Con Romney Rally in Miami on Wednesday.  Obama and David Letterman speak during a break in the taping of the "Late Show with David Letterman" on Tuesday, September 18, at the Ed Sullivan Theater in New York.  A crew member opens the door to Air Force One after the jet arrived at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York on Tuesday.  From left to right: Romney, his wife Ann, and son Tagg watch one of Tagg's sons play soccer in Belmont, Massachusetts, on Saturday, September 15.  Ryan arrives onstage to address the Family Research Council Action Values Voter Summit on Friday, September 14.  Supporters wait for Romney to speak at a campaign rally at Lake Erie College in Painesville, Ohio, on Friday, September 14.  Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on Thursday, September 13. Obama returned to Washington after a two-day campaign trip with events in Nevada and Colorado.  Supporters cheer as Romney speaks at a campaign rally in Fairfax, Virginia, on Thursday.  An Obama supporter attends a rally in Las Vegas on Wednesday, September 12. Obama focused on economic policies during his two days of campaigning in Nevada and Colorado.  Former President Bill Clinton speaks in support of Obama during a campaign stop in Miami on Tuesday, September 11.  Obama is lifted up by Scott Van Duzer, owner of Big Apple Pizza and Pasta Italian Restaurant, during a visit to the restaurant in Fort Pierce, Florida, on Sunday, September 9. Obama was on a two-day bus tour across the state.  President Obama greets supporters during a campaign stop at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Sunday.  Mitt Romney walks through the garage area during a rain delay before the start of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway on Saturday, September 8, in Richmond, Virginia.  Ann Romney, wife of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, waves to the crowd before speaking at a rally in Leesburg, Virginia, on Friday, September 7.  Supporters try to stay dry in between rain showers while waiting for President Obama to speak at the University of Iowa on Friday. It was Obama's first day of campaigning after accepting the presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.  A girl listens to President Obama speak at the University of Iowa on Friday.  Vice President Joe Biden, first lady Michelle Obama, President Obama and Biden's wife, Jill, wave after Friday's campaign event at the University of Iowa.                                                                                                                                                          
Washington (CNN) -- Five days before the presidential election, polls in some crucial battleground states suggest two things: The race is close, and President Barack Obama appears to have a very slight "inside the sampling error" edge over Republican nominee Mitt Romney. The president on Thursday ended a three-state swing with a rally in Colorado. A few hours earlier, a CNN/ORC International Poll indicated that 50% of likely Colorado voters support Obama, with 48% backing the former Massachusetts governor. The president's 2-point margin is well within the survey's sampling error. Tight race in Rocky Mountain battleground The poll's Thursday release also came on the same day that Rep. Paul Ryan, Romney's running mate, headlined a rally in Greeley, Colorado. The top-line results of the CNN survey are very similar to an American Research Group poll conducted this past weekend that had Romney at 48% and Obama at 47%, and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll conducted last week that suggested the race was tied at 48%. "If you didn't know why President Obama and Paul Ryan are here today, and Mitt Romney is coming Saturday, now you know," said CNN Chief National Correspondent John King, who was reporting Thursday from Colorado. As in most swing states, there is a fairly big gender gap, with the CNN poll indicating Romney ahead among men by 10 points and Obama winning with women by 13 points. Income is also an important indicator, with the president holding a big lead among lower-income voters, while voters with more than $50,000 in income last year are tied at 49% for Romney and 49% for Obama. "But the key may be the split between the Denver area and the rest of Colorado, with the suburbs throughout the state likely to determine the winner," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. According to the survey, Obama beats Romney by nearly 2-1 in the two big urban Democratic strongholds of Denver and Boulder. In the Denver suburbs (Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson and Broomfield counties), Obama's support drops but he still holds a 53%-45% margin over Romney.   CNN poll: very tight race in Colorado  What do the latest campaign polls mean?  Voter enthusiasm key to turnout "But the GOP challenger appears to do better in many Front Range suburbs around cities like Fort Collins and Colorado Springs. Combine those Front Range communities with the rural east and west and Romney has a 55%-43% lead once you get beyond the greater Denver area," Holland said. In the battle for crucial independent voters, the poll indicates the president has a 49%-47% edge. Time running out for Colorado's undecided voters King said Obama's strength in Denver and Boulder suggests that Romney is going to need strong turnout among the state's evangelicals and in rural areas. "Splitting the votes of self-described independents probably isn't good enough for the governor," King said. "He needs to boost that number in the final days to win. And while our poll gives the president a tiny edge, it's also proof his ground operation must deliver in the cities and closest suburbs." Could minor-party candidates act as spoilers in Colorado? It's tough to tell, but it is intriguing to note that when three minor party candidates are included in a separate horse race question, a 50%-48% advantage for Obama becomes a 48%-47% margin, with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 4% and Green party candidate Jill Stein claiming 1%, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode coming in with less than one-half of one percent. Statistically, there is no difference between 50%-48% and 48%-47%, but it does illustrate the potential effect of the minor-party candidates in this extremely close race. Ninety-four percent of people questioned said they have made up their minds on whom they'll vote for, with 5% saying they could still change their mind. Nine electoral votes are up for grabs in Colorado, which President George W. Bush carried by 5 points in his 2004 re-election. But four years later, then-Sen. Obama accepted his party's presidential nomination at the Democratic convention in Denver, and he won the state by 9 points over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 election. The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 26 to 31 (entirely after the third and final presidential debate), with 984 adults, including 904 registered voters and 733 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. In Wisconsin, where 10 electoral votes are at stake, three new surveys have been released over the past 24 hours. According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, Obama is at 49% and Romney at 46% among likely voters in Ryan's home state. The president's 3-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. A Marquette Law School poll indicated Obama with an 8-point (51%-43%) lead in the state, and a St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio survey had the president at 52% and Romney at 43%. A CNN Poll of Polls that averages all three surveys indicates Obama with a 51%-44% margin over Romney. Ten electoral votes are up for grabs in Wisconsin, which no Republican has won in a presidential election since 1984. The president campaigned in Wisconsin on Thursday, and Romney stops there Friday. A New poll by NBC/WSJ/Marist on Thursday in Iowa gives the president a 6-point 50%-44% advantage. A new survey by the University of Iowa that was conducted over a longer period suggested a closer contest for the state's six electoral votes. An NBC/WSJ/Marist survey in New Hampshire indicates Obama at 49% and Romney at 47% in the battle for the state's four electoral votes. The race for the White House is a battle for the states and their electoral votes, with 270 being the magic number. The contest will be won or lost in the battleground states and no state is getting more attention than Ohio, where 18 electoral votes are up for grabs. A CNN Poll of Polls that averages the five nonpartisan, live operator surveys conducted in Ohio after last week's debate indicates Obama at 49% and Romney at 46% among likely voters. No Republican in modern times has won the White House without carrying Ohio. While the latest public opinion polls give Obama the slight edge, the Romney campaign remains confident. The swing state of Virginia also is getting a ton of attention. A CNN Poll of Polls that averages the four nonpartisan, live operator surveys conducted in Virginia (13 electoral votes) since the debate indicates Romney at 48% and Obama at 47%. In Florida, a CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll also indicates a race that's tied, with the president at 48% and Romney at 47%. A CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday also showed the race for Florida's 29 electoral votes deadlocked with Romney at 50% and Obama at 49%. The Obama campaign likes the numbers coming out of the public opinion polls in the swing states. "We feel very very good about the numbers that we're mounting up in those states," Obama campaign senior adviser David Axelrod told reporters on Wednesday. The Romney campaign also says it is in a very good place with a week to go. "This race is exactly where we had hoped it would be a week out. It is a close race," said senior Romney adviser Russ Schriefer on a conference call on Wednesday.   |
11/01/2012
Inside the polls: Obama's slim lead from women, cities
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