10/16/2012

Man who killed Texas pastor sentenced to death

By NBC News staff

A man convicted of capital murder in the strangulation death of a pastor in a north Texas church was sentenced to death on Tuesday.

A jury in state District Judge Mike Thomas' court deliberated for about 90 minutes before deciding on the sentence for Steven Lawayne Nelson, 25, of Arlington, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported.

Nelson faced either the death penalty or life in prison without parole for killing the Rev. Clint Dobson at his Baptist church in Arlington in March 2011. Dobson was beaten, strangled with a computer extension cord and suffocated with a plastic bag. A church secretary was also brutally beaten and left for dead but survived.


Prosecutors said Nelson, a convicted felon, killed the pastor because he wanted to steal a car that he had seen in the church parking lot.

Nelson was convicted of capital murder last week by the same jury in Fort Worth that decided on his death sentence.

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At trial, prosecutors showed text messages that Nelson sent the day after the killing. In one, he wrote: "I don't mean to brag. I'm a monster," according to The Associated Press.

Nelson's family members testified that he had a troubled childhood in which he suffered from attention deficit disorder and dysfunctional relationships, according to AP.

Defense attorneys asked jurors to spare Nelson's life, saying he didn't get the proper help he needed when he was growing up.

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Polls, lies and 'the prediction biz'

  • Some people jump to conclusions based on polls, putting uncertainty aside
  • We're uncomfortable with uncertainty -- hence the market for predictions
  • FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver: A "dose of humility" necessary
  • When predictions go wrong, some people deny the result

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(CNN) -- These are the days of uncertainty. The pollsters tell us so.

You wouldn't know it from the pundits, however. They rend their garments or sing hosannas as if each little survey statistic was handed down from on high, chiseled into tablets.

"Is Mitt Romney panicking?" asked a Washington Post headline in mid-September after polls indicated President Obama had received a post-convention bounce. "Did Obama just throw the entire election away?" an alarmed Andrew Sullivan asked after the first presidential debate, reeling off a flurry of the president's poor polling numbers.

The fact is, every day is a day of uncertainty -- and we hate that.

Psychologically, it gives us comfort to determine our fates, says Dr. David Reiss, a San Diego-based psychiatrist and expert on personality dynamics.

"We're sort of hardwired to predict what is going to happen to protect ourselves," he says. After all, for much of mankind's recorded history, a prediction could literally mean the difference between life and death -- whether it was determining a village's vulnerability to attack or attempting to figure out the size of the coming harvest.

But, he adds, there's also a sense of power and ego in knowing the future: "If I can predict things, I have some control and it releases feelings of helplessness or fear," he says. "The more I can predict, the smarter I am and the better I look to others."

Throw in the chattering, nattering, opinion-splattering classes -- which traffic in confidence and authority -- and you create a stew of statements that seldom veers from bet-the-house conviction.

In his new book, "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- But Some Don't," statistician and FiveThirtyEight.com creator Nate Silver looked into almost 1,000 predictions of the D.C.-based "McLaughlin Group" pundits. They were about half right -- no better than a coin flip. These Beltway insiders "displayed about as much political acumen as a barbershop quartet," Silver writes.

The first debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney changed polls -- and pundits\' opinions.
The first debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney changed polls -- and pundits' opinions.

Compare that with weather forecasters, Silver says in an interview. The profession, which has improved consistently over the years, makes a virtue out of unknowns, such as the "cone of probability" in hurricane tracking. "They're being honest about how much they know and how much they don't know," he says.

"So they've made progress, whereas people who are trying to make the perfect prediction and take political science and treat it as though it's physics are failing much more often," he says. An appreciation of uncertainty "requires a dose of humility that the weather forecasters have that the (pundits) don't."

Numbers overload: Polling data hype sways voters

'You find the uncertainty and kind of wallow in it'

We may want to laugh about the "McLaughlin" folks -- they're providing entertainment, not prophecy -- but the overall point of Silver's book is that poor predictions can cost society dearly. Look at the financial crisis, which blindsided most economists, or the early visions of the Iraq war, which turned out to be anything but the predicted "cakewalk."

It's no wonder that, throughout history, kings and emperors put so much stock in soothsayers, or that tales of Joseph, Daniel, Cassandra and the Oracle at Delphi are still touchstones.

We also revel when the experts are wrong. An Irish mathematician said speedy trains were impractical because they'd cause breathing deprivation. A 1901 critic said only one of Mark Twain's works would endure: "The Celebrated Jumping Frog of Calaveras County." And then there's the founder of the onetime technology behemoth Digital Equipment Corp., who said in 1977, "There's no reason a person would want a computer in their home." Digital was bought by home computer-maker Compaq in 1998. (TheWeek.com has a whole page devoted to such opinions.)

Pollsters shouldn't get cocky, either. In 1936, the prestigious Literary Digest -- which ran what was then considered the gold standard of presidential polls -- proclaimed that Republican Alf Landon would beat President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Instead, Roosevelt won the greatest electoral landslide of modern times. The Digest, suddenly a laughingstock, folded two years later.

The Digest's failure led to the rise of pollster George Gallup, who brought statistical rigor to polling. But even Gallup could falter: His poll missed the Harry Truman-Thomas Dewey contest of 1948.

Futurists are professional predictors, some of them paid tidy sums for their expertise in forecasting the direction society, technology and nations are moving. Cindy Frewen Wuellner, an architect and chairwoman of the Association of Professional Futurists, says the key to good forecasting is knowing what you don't know and doing your research.

"As a futurist, you find the uncertainty and kind of wallow in it," she says. "You make sure the uncertainty is explored layer by layer."

She observes that context is key. We're always making fun of the fact that we don't have a "Jetsons"-like present of flying cars, she points out, but seldom think about what's required to build that kind of society. "It's not the innovation, it's the diffusion of it," she says, pointing out that we'd need to create a whole infrastructure for such vehicles (which do exist). "It's enough to have the FAA dealing with all the planes in the air. What if every single car was a plane?"

The home computer has turned out to be far more useful than the head of Digital imagined.
The home computer has turned out to be far more useful than the head of Digital imagined.

People (like, perhaps, sports talking heads or Washington pundits) often believe predictions are "a single scenario," she adds. "Futurists believe in futures with an 'S,' meaning multiple scenarios. And the only scenario that isn't going to happen is business as usual. You can't just take today and multiply it out and call it tomorrow."

Which is one of the issues in interpreting polls. Too often, observers look at what is so often characterized as a "snapshot" of data and jump to conclusions. It doesn't help, says Emory University political scientist and polling expert Alan Abramowitz, that there are more polls than ever.

"If you go back to the 1950s and '60s, there were only a few polling organizations," he says. "It's really in the last two or three presidential election cycles that we've seen a proliferation of polls."

Moreover, as technology has changed, so have polling methods. Polling used to be done face to face. Now it's all done by telephone -- a much cheaper alternative, Abramowitz says, but not necessarily more accurate, what with robocalls, lack of callbacks and sampling challenges based on land line and cell phone users. Then there's "rational ignorance" -- the consciously shallow understanding and apathy of many possible respondents. There have been movements to counter these flaws, such as Stanford University's "Deliberative Polling," but the general process remains imperfect.

Some organizations have adjusted well, others have not -- but all the data are thrown into the mix, a haystack of straws for pundits to grasp.

'Town meeting' or fodder for denialists?

In his book "When the People Speak," James Fishkin, a Stanford political scientist, observed that George Gallup believed polling solved a host of civic ills. Along with mass media, polling "created a town meeting on a national scale," Gallup wrote in 1938.

So much for that. Instead, many people have used the snapshot statistics as a club with which to pound their opponents -- or they deny their usefulness entirely.

The only scenario that isn't going to happen is business as usual.
Futurist Cindy Frewen Wuellner

Indeed, these days, some people hold onto their views so strongly that they resist actual facts. Both parties have fallen into the trap: In 2004, some Democrats, lulled by early exit polls that indicated a narrow victory for John Kerry, claimed that the election had been stolen. More recently, some Republicans have claimed that the polls themselves are skewed.

In an essay for Slate, law professor Richard L. Hasen, author of "The Voting Wars," asked if Republicans would accept an Obama victory. He pointed to a rise in distrust of election results -- from members of both parties -- since the 2000 Bush v. Gore contest.

"The lesson from these statistics is simple. If my guy won, the election was fair and square. If your guy won, there must have been some kind of chicanery," he writes.

Sigh.

Sometimes, says futurist Frewen Wuellner, you just have to accept that you don't know the future until it occurs. In the meantime, research, prepare -- and expect uncertainty.

"Anybody who says they know for sure -- they're lying," she says. "They don't know. Nobody knows for sure. There's always something that can happen.

"It's what makes the prediction business so big."

Apple sets likely iPad Mini event

Apple sent this invite to members of the media Tuesday. The graphics offer few clues as to what the company may announce.
Apple sent this invite to members of the media Tuesday. The graphics offer few clues as to what the company may announce.
  • Apple sent invites to members of the press Tuesday for an October 23 event
  • The event next week is widely expected to be the launch of a smaller iPad

(CNN) -- One of the worst-kept secrets in tech has been confirmed: Apple will hold an event October 23 in San Jose, California, at which the company is widely expected to unveil a smaller, cheaper version of its popular iPad.

Apple sent e-mails to members of the press Tuesday that read simply, "We've got a little more to show you. Please join us for an invitation-only event at the California Theatre in San Jose on October 23 at 10:00 a.m."

Unlike last month's invite to the unveiling of the iPhone 5, which contained a not-so-subtle "5" in its graphic. Tuesday's colorful rainbow design offered few hints about what Apple might announce, although the word "little" might be a clue.

Numerous news reports suggest the secretive company will introduce a 7- or 8-inch version of its popular tablet, which currently has a nearly 10-inch screen when measured diagonally.

Apple has not confirmed any of these reports, of course. Nor have they revealed what such a mythical device might be called, which hasn't stopped the tech media from labeling it the "iPad Mini."

Other details about the rumored tablet remain vague, although some analysts predict it will not have the high-definition "retina display" that's on the current iPad.

A smaller iPad would allow Apple to compete head-to-head with rival small tablets, such as Amazon's Kindle Fire and Google's Nexus 7, that have weakened Apple's domination of the tablet market.

Those tablets are priced in the $200 range, while Apple's current iPad lineup starts at $399 for last year's iPad 2 and $499 for the third-generation iPad released in March.

California city bans smoking in multi-unit housing

By Ronnie Cohen, Reuters

SAN RAFAEL, Calif. - A San Francisco suburb on Monday banned smoking in duplexes, condominiums and other multi-family homes, with city leaders saying they hoped to lead a wave of such regulations across California and ultimately the country. 

The City Council in San Rafael, a community of 57,000 people about 15 miles north of San Francisco, voted unanimously for the ban, following a handful of other California municipalities that have outlawed smoking in buildings with as few as two units. 

"We are happy to blaze a trail," Mayor Gary Phillips said before the vote. "We're most happy to be in the forefront of the issue because we think it will greatly benefit our residents and those visiting San Rafael, and we think it will set the tone for other cities as well." 

Tobacco-control experts predicted that the tough smoking ordinance in San Rafael could touch off a larger movement in other states and cities. 


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"The San Rafael ban is a very significant event because it will spread," said Robert Proctor, a Stanford University history of science professor. "We're on the downslope of a big curve. Smoking peaked in 1981 with 630 billion cigarettes sold in the United States. Now it's down to 350 billion. And that number will keep on going down until smoking is a distant memory." 

San Rafael is the state's ninth municipality to completely restrict smoking in multi-unit housing, said Pam Granger, advocacy manager for the American Lung Association in California. Granger said California was the only state where local jurisdictions have banned smoking in homes. 

Supporters of the San Rafael measure say it would protect bystanders from the health hazards associated with secondhand smoke, a known carcinogen that can seep through ventilation ducts, doorways and open windows in residential units with shared walls, California Watch reported. 

Although the ordinance has generally been supported by residents who have spoken at city council meetings, the proposal has set the stage for a fierce fight over how far the government should go in regulating peoples' private lives. 

"This proposed smoking ban actually intends to punish people for what they do in their own homes," Thomas Ruppenthal told the city council. "I really feel this is tyranny." 

City officials say they have received roughly 30 emails and calls from residents who say the ban would leave smokers with few places to go, California Watch reported. 

The ordinance also would prohibit smoking on San Rafael's downtown streets - the backdrop for parts of the 1973 film "American Graffiti." 

Watch the most-viewed videos on NBCNews.com 

When George Lucas filmed his coming-of-age movie in his hometown in 1973 people smoked at work, on airplanes, in restaurants, even in schools and hospitals. It was not until 1977 that neighboring Berkeley became the world's first city to restrict smoking in restaurants. 

California restaurants and most workplaces went smoke-free in 1995, and bars, once a smokers' haven, followed in 1998. California and three other states now restrict smoking in cars with children. 

Secondhand smoke kills an estimated 50,000 Americans, including 430 infants, a year, according to a 2006 U.S. Surgeon General's report. It concluded that concentrations of cancer-causing and toxic chemicals might be higher in secondhand smoke than in the fumes that smokers directly inhale. 

California municipalities have used the report to prohibit smoking in apartments and other multi-family homes. In some cases, the laws apply only to new construction or to just a percentage of a housing complex's units. 

But the restrictions have become increasingly strict, and San Rafael's ordinance applies to all homes, new or existing and rented or owned, with shared walls. 

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Microsoft tablet goes on sale for $499

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer introduces Microsoft's Surface tablet on June 18 in Hollywood, California.
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer introduces Microsoft's Surface tablet on June 18 in Hollywood, California.
  • Consumers can preorder Microsoft's upstart 10.6-inch tablet at Surface.com
  • Prices start at $499 for the 32GB model and $699 for the 64GB; both are Wi-Fi only
  • Device will ship Oct. 26, and also be available at roughly 65 Microsoft stores

(CNN) -- The Microsoft Surface tablet picture has abruptly come into focus. Tuesday morning this Redmond giant filled in the blanks on the new tablet's pricing, availability and specs.

Starting today at 9 a.m. PT, consumers can preorder Microsoft's upstart 10.6-inch tablet at Surface.com, with prices starting at $499 for the 32GB model and $699 for the 64GB model. Both tablets are Wi-Fi only.

The Windows RT (Microsoft's ARM-friendly version of Windows 8, which ships Oct. 26) tablet, which offers a built-in kickstand, does not ship with the 3mm thin Touch Cover keypad. That'll run you $119. The Touch Cover, which features real keys, costs $129. You can save $20 if you buy the $599 Surface/Touch Cover bundle (the $699 edition comes with the Touch Cover).

We also now know a lot more about what's inside Surface's Titanium shell and Vapor Magnesium (VaporMG) skeleton.

Along with a Nvidia Tegra 3 CPU (which may be running at 1.5 GHz), Microsoft has stuffed an impressive 2 GB of RAM inside the Surface. It also features an 802.11N Mimo Wi-Fi radio, Bluetooth 4.0, an accelerometer, gyroscope, compass, dual microphones, stereo speakers, an HD-out port, a full-sized USB 2.0 port and a micro SD-slot. There are two 720p cameras (no 1080p); one on the front and one on the back.

Is Microsoft's Surface an iPad killer?

It also comes pre-loaded with Microsoft Office Home and Student 2013 RT Preview edition, which Microsoft execs say has been tweaked to accommodate the touch-screen interface.

Like many of the mid-sized tablets entering the market today, the Surface is a Wi-Fi-only device. Even so, it's sort of the odd man out when compared to 9.7- and 8.9-inch LTE devices from Apple and Amazon, respectively. Microsoft's Windows 8 lead Steven Sinofsky said he's not concerned about the Surface's lack of a cellular feature, adding "it could be an option down the road. Maybe, maybe not."

The device will ship Oct. 26, and also be available at roughly 65 Microsoft stores and holiday pop-up locations around the country. Microsoft is devoting nearly 50% of its store floor space to the iPad rival. Surface will also go on sale in eight international locations, including China, Hong Kong, United Kingdom, Germany, France and Australia.

Below the Surface

What consumers will see when they go shopping for the Surface is a product that is subtly different than the one Microsoft showed off during the summer. That's because the company had not quite finished developing the Surface, which probably explains why reporters got so little time with the product.

Mashable got a little closer to some of the finished devices this week, as Microsoft proudly explained the development process (even taking us behind the scenes at its top-secret development labs) and some of the key hardware highlights that it believes set it apart from the tablet competition.

We got to very briefly hold the device. It weighs 1.5 pounds, but does not feel heavier than the 1.46-pound iPad. Microsoft's Sinofsky and Panos Panay, General Manager for Microsoft's Surface program, said that this is because Microsoft engineered the "inertia" (the feeling you get when someone, say, drops the Surface into your hand) to be different, essentially spreading the weight out over a larger area and as evenly as possibly.

We also got a chance, in Microsoft's secret labs, to attach and detach the Touch Cover, which, thanks to powerful -- albeit tiny — magnets, snaps sharply into place with a resounding snap. The hold looks to be quite strong, too. At one point, Sinofsky merrily dangled the tablet, holding it only by the magnetically attached cover.

We typed a bit on the tablet's cover, too. It's smart enough to not react when I rested my hands on the slightly raised, pressure-sensitive urethane keyboard, but reacted well to touch typing. The cover even includes a track pad area, which also responded well to taps and gestures.

What is it?

Though Surface is clearly a tablet device, Sinofsky pointed out that the process of developing Windows 8 (on which Surface's Windows RT operating system is based) started in the summer of 2009, when there was no Apple iPad as a reference point (though it remains unclear if Microsoft began working on its tablet at that time).

Sinofsky also seemed, at times, almost unwilling to truly define the Surface as a tablet: "I've used a lot of tablets and this is not a tablet, but this is the best tablet I've ever used. And I've used a lot of laptops and notebooks, but this is not a laptop or notebook, but it's the best laptop or notebook I've ever used."

Sinofsky did also, of course, describe the Surface as a touch-first tablet device, but also emphasized its utility and productivity. In fact, the desire to make the Surface a truly productive tablet drove many of Microsoft's design decisions.

It is, at 10.6 inches for instance, larger than both the iPad and many of the 10.1 tablets on the market today. And 9.7 inches and even 10.1 inches weren't large enough to accommodate the multi-tasking and the larger, more comfortable Touch Cover typing experience Sinofsky and Panay desired, so they settled on the larger 10.6-inch, 1366×768 display.

Of course, a larger screen means more power consumption and the need for a bigger battery. Sinofsky explained that "you're in this loop" of ever increasing screen size, more battery to support it and, naturally, more weight.

This reality forced Microsoft to come up with its own magnesium chassis, highly compressed touch-stack for the screen, and a host of other patents and innovations to hit 1.5 pounds with all-day battery life, while not turning the Surface into a heavy, bulky device.

From what we saw, Microsoft may have succeeded. However the true test starts today as consumers place their orders and then, 10 days from now, when customers get their hands on the new Surface tablet. Can it stand tall among the iPads, Kindle Fires and Google Nexuses of the world? Only time -- and some critical reviews -- will tell.

Are you getting ready to buy Microsoft's tablet? Let us know in the comments.

See the original article on Mashable.com.

© 2011 MASHABLE.com. All rights reserved.

University wants anti-gay marriage official back on job

By Miranda Leitsinger, NBC News, NBC News

Gallaudet University would like to work with its chief diversity officer, who was put on leave after signing a petition to reverse Maryland's same-sex marriage law, so she can return to her post, its president said Tuesday.

Dr. Angela McCaskill signed the petition at her church after her preacher spoke against gay marriage, the Planet DeafQueer blog reported last week, citing a Gallaudet faculty member who first spotted the administrator's name on the document. Voters in Maryland will decide on Nov. 6 whether to keep a state law passed earlier this year approving same-sex marriage.


University President T. Alan Hurwitz said he placed McCaskill on administrative leave as a "prudent action" to allow her and the university "time to consider this question after the emotions of first reactions subsided."

"As many know, Dr. McCaskill exercised her right to sign a petition concerning legislation on gay marriage. Because of her position at Gallaudet as our chief diversity officer, many individuals at our university were understandably concerned and confused by her action," he said in a statement. "They wanted to know 'does that action interfere with her ability to perform her job?'"

But Wednesday he said he wanted to "indicate forcefully" that the university would like to work with her to "enable her to return to the community from her administrative leave."

"While I expect that a resolution of this matter can be reached that will enable Dr. McCaskill to continue as our chief diversity officer, this will require that she and the university community work together to respond to the concerns that have been raised," he added.

Related stories:

University's diversity chief put on leave after signing anti-gay marriage petition
For 1st time, gay marriage may win statewide vote
US immigration chief: Same-sex ties are family ties

Did Supreme Court justice tip hand on gay marriage?
Appeals court: Denying federal benefits to same-sex couples is unconstitutional

McCaskill's attorney, J. Wyndal Gordon, said: "That's all that she ever wanted to do in the very beginning. They totally flip-flopped on it 180 degrees."

"It's encouraging that they evolved in this situation, as President Obama would say, and we look forward to speaking to them to determine whether or not they are sincere."

More US coverage from NBC News

Gordon said McCaskill wasn't anti-gay and that her signing the petition in July was intended to have the matter decided at the ballot box and allow voters to become more informed on the issue.

A Baltimore Sun poll in late September found that Maryland voters favored legalizing same-sex marriage, 49 percent to 39 percent. The survey of 804 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 25 to 27 by research firm OpinionWorks. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.

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Picasso, Matisse paintings stolen

Pablo Picasso's "Tete d'Arlequin"-- pictured here on show at Sotheby's on May 3,2007 -- was one of seven paintings stolen from an exhibition at the Kunsthal Rotterdam museum on October 16, 2012.Pablo Picasso's "Tete d'Arlequin"-- pictured here on show at Sotheby's on May 3,2007 -- was one of seven paintings stolen from an exhibition at the Kunsthal Rotterdam museum on October 16, 2012.
Claude Monet's "Waterloo Bridge, London" was also taken during the pre-dawn heist.Claude Monet's "Waterloo Bridge, London" was also taken during the pre-dawn heist.
A investigator searches the Rotterdam Kunsthal museum following the break-in. The stolen works belong to a private collection that was being shown to the public for the first time.A investigator searches the Rotterdam Kunsthal museum following the break-in. The stolen works belong to a private collection that was being shown to the public for the first time.
  • NEW: Police blame a burglar; 7 stolen works were by Picasso, Matisse, Monet, Gauguin, others
  • Paintings of "considerable value" were taken, Kunsthal Rotterdam spokeswoman says
  • The collection contains more than 150 works of art, including artists Duchamp, Braque
  • The early morning break-in triggered an alarm and a security response

(CNN) -- Paintings by famous modern artists disappeared from an exhibition in the Netherlands in a predawn art heist Tuesday, shutting down an exhibition in the Kunsthal Rotterdam, where works by Pablo Picasso, Vincent van Gogh, Andy Warhol and Claude Monet are on display.

Seven works of "considerable value" disappeared in the museum theft, spokeswoman Mariette Maaskant said on Netherlands public radio.

"Initial investigations show the burglar was well prepared," police said in a statement.

Painting from Clapton's collection nabs record price

Rotterdam police said evidence has been secured and they are speaking with potential witnesses. Investigators are also looking at security camera footage.

The paintings include Pablo Picasso's "Tete d'Arlequin"; Henri Matisse's "La Liseuse en Blanc et Jaune"; and Claude Monet's "Waterloo Bridge, London" and "Charing Cross Bridge, London," Rotterdam police said.

The other three were Paul Gauguin's "Femme devant une fenĂȘtre ouverte, dite la Fiancee," Meyer de Haan's "Autoportrait" and Lucian Freud's "Woman with Eyes Closed."

London: Man charged for defacing classic painting at the Tate

The Kunsthal's alarm system went off shortly after 3 a.m. local time, alerting the exhibition hall's private security detail. When security staffers arrived by car, they saw that the paintings were missing, Rotterdam police spokesman Roland Ekkers said. They informed police, who started an investigation.

The works belong to a private collection that is being shown for the first time to the public, according to a Kunsthal statement.

The Triton Collection has taken 20 years to assemble and includes more than 150 works of modern art from the "late nineteenth century to the present day." It spans art movements from impressionism and expressionism to cubism and constructivism.

Its roster of artists boasts the names of Marcel Duchamp, Piet Mondriaan and George Braque, to name just a few.

Andy Warhol's '15 minutes' of fame are not up yet

Journalist Dominique Van Heerden contributed to this report.