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10/04/2012

Analysis: Romney seizes the story

No candidate has ever scored above 60% on question of who won -- Romney scored 67%
Romney's answers were direct, confident and black-and-white
Obama's performance was long and windy, even a bit hesitant
Obama's campaign now faces second-guessing that Romney's was before Wednesday

(CNN) -- Heading into Wednesday, majorities of Americans in virtually every major poll predicted President Barack Obama would come out on top in this year's presidential debates. Even majorities of Republicans and Romney supporters thought the GOP nominee was in for a rough night.

But not all of them. At a time when most surrogates were competing in the traditional expectations-setting limbo contest that always precedes presidential debates, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie predicted that Mitt Romney, seasoned veteran of roughly 20 debates within the past year alone, would prevail.

"Wednesday night's the restart of this campaign," he told NBC. "Come Thursday morning, the entire narrative of this race is going to change."

No matter how the narrative looks moving forward, there's no question Romney claimed it in Denver on Wednesday night.

5 things we learned from the presidential debate

He didn't just score wins on the margins, holding his own against the president; he won big. Since the question of which candidate did better in a presidential debate was first asked by Gallup in 1984, no candidate has ever scored more than 60% on the question, until Wednesday night, when 67% of the voters in CNN's post-debate poll gave Romney the edge.

President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney finish their debate in Denver on Wednesday, October 3. View behind-the-scene photos of debate preparations.

Romney stands with his wife, Ann, and family following the first presidential debate.

President Obama kisses first lady Michelle Obama after the debate Wednesday. It took place on their 20th wedding anniversary.

Jim Leher of PBS moderates the 90-minute debate on Wednesday. It was the candidates' first time debating face to face.

Obama defended his record and challenged his rival's proposals.

Romney was more aggressive Wednesday in criticizing Obama's vision.

People watch the debate at Galapagos Art Space in Brooklyn, New York.

The event was expected to draw the candidates' largest nationwide audience to date.

Romney answers a question from the moderator.

Obama argues his view. Both candidates said the other's proposals won't work.

Michelle Obama listens to the debate.

Romney said Obama has failed to bring down high unemployment and get the economy surging again.

Obama reacts to Romney's remarks on Wednesday.

Obama listens during the debate in Denver.

Romney, who has been unable to catch the president in most polls to date, sought to generate enthusiasm for a change in the White House.

Romney's shadow is projected beneath text from the Declaration of Independence at the University of Denver's Magness Arena.

The first of three presidential debates focused on domestic issues: the economy, health care and the role of government.

Obama and Mitt Romney clashed over the economy on Wednesday.

Romney speaks during Wednesday night's debate. The candidate called for a new economic path.

Obama called for "economic patriotism" and said Romney's plan of tax cuts for the rich failed before.

Romney and Obama wave to the crowd at the start of the presidential debate.

Obama greets Romney on Wednesday.

The candidates meet on stage less than five weeks before Election Day.

Obama and Romney shake hands Wednesday night.

The presidential race has been dominated so far by negative advertising as both camps try to frame the election to their advantage.

Leher takes the stage Wednesday. It's his 12th time moderating a presidential debate.

Michelle Obama points to Lehrer before the start of the debate.

Ann Romney and first lady Michelle Obama hug on Wednesday.

The candidates wives were in attendance for the most highly anticipated campaign event to date.

Michelle Obama sits with White House Senior Advisor Valerie Jarrett, right.

Rapper Will.i.am, left, speaks with Jarrett before the debate on Wednesday. View behind-the-scenes photos of debate preparations.

The first presidential debate

Photos: The first presidential debate

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Rubio: Obama uncomfortable at debate

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It was a relatively placid debate with few direct confrontations, virtually no sustained attacks, and occasionally no attacks at all, on some of Romney's most vulnerable areas.

Voters finally tuning in to the race for the first time on Wednesday would leave without hearing most of the themes that have dominated the trail since the race began.

Funniest tweets about the debate

A lengthy discussion of entitlement spending, and a follow-up segment devoted to the role of government, rolled by without a single mention of Romney's 47% remarks. A discussion of high finance and companies that ship jobs overseas passed without a mention of Bain Capital, a topic that had dominated the Obama campaign's messaging for months and seemed to have done Romney real damage in key swing states like Ohio.

Romney spent weeks before the debate practicing, leaving nothing to chance, from his body language to every one-liner in his arsenal. And it showed: He didn't have to reach for answers or decide how to handle debate stage dynamics. His performance came across like the campaign equivalent of muscle memory.

Connecting with the viewer: 'Romney was able to out Obama'

Obama's answers were long and winding, featuring more than their fair share of provisos and to-be-sures, even a bit hesitant. Romney's were direct, confident and black-and-white. As his team had hinted before the debate, he claimed the fact-checking mantle as his own, deflecting attention from a string of previously debunked statements by aiming the truth-stretching accusation at Obama, and masterfully working in a passing reference to the president's lifestyle that seemed designed to reduce the advantage his own wealth had given his opponent: "Mr. President, you're entitled to your own house and your own airplane, but not your own facts." That particular jab seemed to beg for a pointed response about privilege that never came.

Not only did Romney put Obama on the defensive, at times, the president seemed to put himself there, raising and responding to conservative attacks that hadn't yet been mentioned.

The imbalance in the performances immediately showed up in polls after the debate ended: Romney, at least for the night, erased deficits and regained ground he'd lost on key questions. By double-digit advantages, the registered voters in CNN's poll said he came across as the better leader and better on the economy.

Read a transcript of the debate

On the likeability question -- where the president's held the edge all year, generally by a double-digit advantage -- Romney closed the gap: 46% said he was the more likeable candidate, to 45% who said the same of Obama. Still there were some hints of strategies that might make re-appearances in future debates. With a more aggressive posture, Obama's demands for policy details from Romney could draw blood.

One of the biggest advantages Romney has on the president is the fact that Obama has four years of proposals to critique and a track record of both successes and failures. Romney has had no track record, no time in office, since well before the financial crisis began. And by releasing as few details as possible about most of his policy plans, he's been able to make ambitious promises that far outstrip any achievement someone in office would be able to match in a real-world environment. A sustained push by the president could pose questions his plans aren't yet specific enough to answer.

At crossroads of economic crisis, debate disappoints

And the president's comeback to Romney's assurance to current Medicare patients that their own care would remain unaffected under his plan highlighted the glaring political weak spot: "If you're 54 or 55, you might want to listen, 'cause this, this will affect you," said Obama.

But for the moment, Romney's regained the momentum, re-energizing his base while the president faces the sort of second-guessing his opponent had been battling for the past month. The question is whether the flash polls are recording a flash in the pan, or whether, with roughly a month left in the race, the governor can translate his performance into the sort of healthy, sustained bounce that eluded him after the Republican convention.

Complete coverage of CNN's Fact Checks

4th Calif. city faces bankruptcy as 'disease' spreads

A fiscal emergency is considered the first step towards Chapter 9, said CNBC's Jane Wells, reporting on whether Atwater, California will become the fourth town to declare bankruptcy in the state.

By NBC News staff and wire reports

Municipal bankruptcies are spreading like a "disease" in California, one public finance expert warned Wednesday as the city of Atwater declared a fiscal emergency with a budget gap of more than $3 million.

The city's council approved the move on Wednesday night, putting it on the path to becoming the fourth city in the state to declare bankruptcy this year.

With a population of 28,000, Atwater fell on hard times after its housing market imploded and sent property tax revenue plummeting. Furloughs and a hiring freeze had not been able to stem Atwater's losses.

San Bernardino becomes 3rd Calif. city in 2 weeks to file for bankruptcy protection

Municipal debt market analysts are keeping a close eye on the finances of local governments in California out of concern that some could use fiscal emergency declarations as a way to speed Chapter 9 filings to attempt to shed financial obligations.

"In California, we have a disease, and the disease is spreading," David Kotok, chief investment officer at Florida-based Cumberland Advisors, told the State & Municipal Finance Conference conference in New York on Wednesday, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

"I suspect we're going to see wholesale warnings and downgrades" among bond rating issuers in the state, he said.

If it went bankrupt, Atwater would follow Stockton, San Bernardino and Mammoth Lakes by making a Chapter 9 filing.

San Bernardino, California's city council in July authorized a bankruptcy filing after declaring a fiscal emergency. The city of 210,000 residents 65 miles east of Los Angeles, filed for bankruptcy on August 1.

By contrast, Stockton, a city of 300,000 located about 62 miles to the northwest of Atwater, became California's first city to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection this year after 90 days of inconclusive mediation with its creditors.

Kim Rueben of the Tax Policy Center explains why some American cities are running out of money, filing for bankruptcy, and making drastic cuts in the process.

Mammoth Lakes, a resort town of about 8,000 residents in California's Sierra Nevada mountains, followed Stockton into bankruptcy court, saying it could not afford a $43 million legal judgment against it. Mammoth Lakes has since reached a settlement with the property developer in the legal dispute and later this month will seek to have its bankruptcy case dismissed.

City officials in Atwater are looking into options for increasing revenue such as raising 20-year-old rates for water services and 10-year-old rates for garbage collection services while clamping down on costs, all while considering whether to pursue a bankruptcy filing.

Union representative Nancy Vinson said 38 of Atwater's non-safety employees have received layoff notices and that 12 are sure to lose their jobs as part of the city's efforts to pare spending.

Vinson told Reuters by telephone that she believes Atwater's financial troubles are so severe that the city will not be able to avoid a bankruptcy filing.