11/06/2012

Here are factors to watch

Mike Wegart, 30, stands in line to vote at the Venice Beach lifeguard station in Los Angeles. Polls indicate President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney are in a tight race as the 2012 election nears its end. <a href='http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/26/politics/gallery/campaign-trail/index.html'>See the best of Romney and Obama on the campaign trail.</a>Mike Wegart, 30, stands in line to vote at the Venice Beach lifeguard station in Los Angeles. Polls indicate President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney are in a tight race as the 2012 election nears its end. S ee the best of Romney and Obama on the campaign trail.
Obama supporter Tonya Lewis rallies for votes outside a polling station in Tampa, Florida.Obama supporter Tonya Lewis rallies for votes outside a polling station in Tampa, Florida.
Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan leaves a campaign plane in Cleveland, Ohio, Tuesday.Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan leaves a campaign plane in Cleveland, Ohio, Tuesday.
President Obama greets supporters outside a campaign office in Chicago Tuesday.President Obama greets supporters outside a campaign office in Chicago Tuesday.
A jogger on The Strand in the Los Angeles area community of Hermosa Beach passes a directional sign to a polling place at sunrise.A jogger on The Strand in the Los Angeles area community of Hermosa Beach passes a directional sign to a polling place at sunrise.
The stage is set for Obama's election night event in Chicago.The stage is set for Obama's election night event in Chicago.
James Tate, 45, holds a sign in support of the Republican ticket in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. James Tate, 45, holds a sign in support of the Republican ticket in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
A nun waits in line to cast her vote in Janesville, Wisconsin.A nun waits in line to cast her vote in Janesville, Wisconsin.
Children's books about politics line a wall where citizens wait to cast their vote in Janesville, Wisconsin.Children's books about politics line a wall where citizens wait to cast their vote in Janesville, Wisconsin.
Volunteer David Bowser peeks outside the Pinellas County Democratic Party headquarters in St. Petersburg, Florida.Volunteer David Bowser peeks outside the Pinellas County Democratic Party headquarters in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Election inspector Jim Nodorft prepares to hang the U.S. flag outside the Smelser Town Hall as polls opened at 7 a.m. in Georgetown, Wisconsin.Election inspector Jim Nodorft prepares to hang the U.S. flag outside the Smelser Town Hall as polls opened at 7 a.m. in Georgetown, Wisconsin.
People head to a polling station at Washington's Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Library on Tuesday.People head to a polling station at Washington's Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Library on Tuesday.
The sunrise is visible through a bus window on Election Day in Chicago. The sunrise is visible through a bus window on Election Day in Chicago.
Voters enter Washington Mill Elementary School in Alexandria, Virginia, to cast their ballots Tuesday. Voters enter Washington Mill Elementary School in Alexandria, Virginia, to cast their ballots Tuesday.
Rain doesn't deter voters from waiting in line Tuesday in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Sunshine State -- with its 29 electoral votes -- will be a key player in determining the next president.Rain doesn't deter voters from waiting in line Tuesday in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Sunshine State -- with its 29 electoral votes -- will be a key player in determining the next president.
A young girl peers out from under a voting booth as her mother casts a ballot at the Bishop Leo O'Neil Youth Center in Manchester, New Hampshire. A young girl peers out from under a voting booth as her mother casts a ballot at the Bishop Leo O'Neil Youth Center in Manchester, New Hampshire.
William Carpenter, an assistant fire chief, puts up an election rules sign at the entrance of a firehouse polling station Tuesday in Port Royal, Virginia.William Carpenter, an assistant fire chief, puts up an election rules sign at the entrance of a firehouse polling station Tuesday in Port Royal, Virginia.
Poll worker David Smith uses a tape measure to mark a boundary at a Bowling Green, Ohio, school to keep local politicians 100 feet away from where voters cast ballots. Poll worker David Smith uses a tape measure to mark a boundary at a Bowling Green, Ohio, school to keep local politicians 100 feet away from where voters cast ballots.
Precinct official Bill Partlow inspects a voting machine before polls open Tuesday in Pineville, North Carolina. Precinct official Bill Partlow inspects a voting machine before polls open Tuesday in Pineville, North Carolina.
Voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, wait to cast the first Election Day ballots of the U.S. presidential race shortly after midnight. For the first time in the village's history, there was a draw, with Obama and Romney each receiving five votes.Voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, wait to cast the first Election Day ballots of the U.S. presidential race shortly after midnight. For the first time in the village's history, there was a draw, with Obama and Romney each receiving five votes.
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  • Polls begin closing at 7 p.m. ET, but results could be hours or days away
  • Virginia could be an early indicator, CNN's John King says
  • Things could get messy if election turns on Ohio results

Watch CNN's comprehensive coverage of Election Day starting at 6 p.m. ET on CNN TV and follow online at CNN.com or via CNN's apps for iPhone, iPad and Android. For up-to-the-minute results, go to cnn.com/re sults and for our real-time Election Day live blog, check out cnn.com/conversation. Need other reasons to watch Election Day coverage on CNN's platforms? Click here for our list.

(CNN) -- It's been a grueling campaign. You just want to sit down with a bowl of popcorn and find out who will be president for the next four years.

So when will we know?

Technically speaking -- who the heck can say?

With a race that went into Election Day neck and neck, and plenty of questions about how key battleground states will play out, it's reasonable to assume a long night is in store.

What to watch for

It could be even longer if the election ends up balanced on the edge of a razor-thin vote in Ohio, or if voting irregularities spark legal challenges in any of a number of critical states.

Crowley on Election Day in America
Strickland: Ohio goes Obama at 11:37 pm
Campaign lawyers ready for legal fight
CNN election night flashback

Either situation could drag out the decision until mid-November or even longer, analysts say.

Whatever happens, we'll start to get some indicators shortly after the first wave of poll closings, at 7 p.m. ET. Battleground states in that group include Virginia, with Ohio following at 7:30 p.m.

Florida and many Midwestern states follow at 8 p.m. ET. West Coast states and Hawaii stop voting at 11 p.m. ET, and the last Americans will cast their ballots, in Alaska, by 1 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

"One of the first things I'll look at are the margins in the northern Virginia suburbs closest to Washington, D.C., especially Prince William County," said CNN chief national correspondent John King.

Drama awaits in battleground states

"If Gov. Romney is ahead or at least in play there, it means Virginia is in play, and we could have a long competitive night," King said. "If he's not in play, it could be over before we even get to the Central time zone."

CNN political reporter Peter Hamby said results from early and absentee balloting in Pasco County, Florida, could also offer a tantalizing glimpse of what the night may hold.

Barack Obama won the early and absentee vote in the slightly Republican-leaning county in 2008. If Obama comes up trailing when those early votes are posted soon after polls close, it could indicate the president might have trouble carrying Florida and its critical electoral votes, according to Hamby.

Frum: U.S. voting system is a disgrace

If Ohio becomes key to the election, that bag of popcorn isn't going to hold you.

If the margin separating Romney and Obama is particularly thin, the election in that key battleground state could ride on absentee and provisional ballots. And that could keep the nation in suspense for a whopping 10 days.

Ohio provisional ballots hold key

That's how long Ohio law gives poll workers to check the eligibility of provisional voters.

Ohio has one of the nation's highest rates of provisional voting, with an estimated 200,000 cast in 2008. About 40,000 were later thrown out.

Popular-electoral split is possible

The worst nightmare scenario is a redux of 2000, when the nation suffered through weeks of uncertainty amid recounts and legal challenges surrounding the vote in Florida.

And, sorry to say it, as tightly contested as this race is, it is a possibility, analysts say.

"Between provisional balloting, absentee balloting and voting technology, I think there are untold different ways that this is a tense, contested election," said Rebecca Green, co-director of the Election Law Program at William & Mary Law School. "It's pretty certain there's going to be some litigation when this is over on November 6."

As we said -- who knows?

CNN's Bill Mears contributed to this report.

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