11/06/2012

Democrats maintain control of Senate

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By M. Alex Johnson, NBC News

Republicans need to capture as few as three or four seats to gain control of the Senate, but the final polling math indicates that self-inflicted wounds by two Republican candidates could leave them short on Tuesday.

Republicans are expected to keep control of the House, but the Senate is harder to predict. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports.

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Democrats control 53 seats in the current Senate (that number includes two independents, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who caucus and generally vote with them); Republicans hold 47. If Mitt Romney wins the presidential election, they would need only a 50-50 tie to seize effective control, because Republican Vice President Paul Ryan would be the tiebreaking vote.


As recently as August, the Republicans looked like a legitimate bet to do it, running virtually dead-even in races for five Democratic-held seats. But then Rep. Todd Akin, the Republican nominee in Missouri, made comments in a TV interview about abortion that many in both parties found extreme, suggesting that women's bodies could "shut down" a pregnancy that was the result of a "legitimate rape."

Akin's remarks focused national attention -- and money — on his challenge to Sen. Claire McCaskill, who'd been considered among the most endangered Democratic incumbents. Now, the last round of tracking polls through the weekend indicates that McCaskill went into Election Day leading by an average of 6 percent.

See detailed election results for this race

A similar controversy last month put a Republican seat in danger. On Oct. 23, Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock — who defeated longtime Republican Sen. Richard Lugar in the GOP primary — said in a debate that he believed that pregnancies resulting from rape were a "gift from God" and shouldn't be terminated.

Mourdock had previously had a comfortable lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly, but the latest round of polling showed Donnelly with a slim 3 percent margin.

See detailed election results for this race

Five other races are also razor-close. Democrats held a small lead in the polls in three of them, a Republican had a narrow edge in one, and one was considered a dead heat:

View complete Senate election results

Massachusetts
Incumbent Republican Scott Brown was trailing Democrat Elizabeth Warren, a law professor at Harvard University who came to national prominence as the engineer of President Barack Obama's Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Warren held a 3-point average lead in the latest pre-election polling. See results

Virginia
In a clash of former governors, Democrat Tim Kaine led Republican George Allen by 3 percentage points in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, released Friday. The winner succeeds Democrat Jim Webb, who's retiring. See results

North Dakota
Democratic former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp was leading Republican Rep. Rick Berg by 5 percentage points on average in the latest polling to succeed Democrat Kent Conrad, who's retiring. See results

Nevada
Incumbent Republican Dean Heller, who was appointed to the seat when former Republican Sen. John Ensign resigned, held a 4 percentage-point average lead in the race to keep his seat over Democratic Rep. Shelley BerkleySee results

Montana
Incumbent Jon Tester was the most endangered Democrat. The last round of pre-election polls showed him in a dead heat with Republican Rep. Denny RehbergSee results

Maine
Republicans looked likely to lose one of their seats, which was held by retiring Olympia Snowe. Former Gov. Angus King, an independent who hasn't said which party he'd vote with — if either — held a comfortable average lead of 15 points over Republican Secretary of State Charlie Summers in recent polls. Democratic state Sen. Cynthia Dill was a distant third. See results

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